What 2025 Taught Canadian Homebuyers — And What to Do Differently in 2026

If 2025 felt confusing as a Canadian homebuyer, you’re not imagining it.

Interest rates finally eased. Headlines hinted at recovery. And yet… the real estate market never quite “came back to life.” Many Canadians waited. Some felt stuck. Others wondered if they missed their chance — or if waiting was actually the right move.

The truth is, 2025 taught us an important lesson: real estate doesn’t move on interest rates alone. It moves on confidence, affordability, supply, and psychology.

Here’s what this year really revealed — and how to approach 2026 with more clarity and control.

1. Lower Rates Alone Were Never Enough

Yes, rates came down modestly in 2025. No, that wasn’t enough to spark a surge in activity.

Why? Because affordability remained stretched. Home prices in many regions stayed high relative to incomes, and everyday expenses continued to pressure household budgets. For many buyers, the monthly payment simply didn’t change enough to feel comfortable moving forward.

Key takeaway:

Lower rates help — but only when they meaningfully change affordability.

2. The Mortgage Stress Test Still Limited Buying Power

This was one of the most misunderstood factors of 2025.

Even as rates declined, buyers still had to qualify at their contract rate plus 2%. That meant borrowing power didn’t increase nearly as much as people expected.

A small rate cut might sound encouraging — but if qualification rates barely move, many buyers remain sidelined.

What this taught us:

The stress test, not just rates, continues to shape demand.

3. The Renewal Wave Changed Buyer Behaviour

Behind the scenes, millions of Canadians were focused on something else entirely: mortgage renewals.

With a large portion of mortgages renewing in 2025–2026 — often at higher rates than before — many households shifted into a defensive mindset. Instead of upgrading, selling, or buying, they prioritized stability and cash flow.

Why this matters:

When existing homeowners hesitate, market activity naturally slows.

4. More Inventory Quietly Shifted the Balance

In several major markets, listings increased through 2025. Buyers suddenly had more choice — and more time.

That alone changes behaviour:

• Less urgency

• Fewer bidding wars

• More conditional offers

Even without falling prices, the tone of the market softened.

Lesson learned:

Markets don’t need to crash to cool — balance is enough.

5. Real Estate Became More Regional Than Ever

National headlines missed an important detail in 2025: local markets told very different stories.

Some regions remained resilient. Others softened. Certain neighbourhoods saw demand return faster than surrounding areas.

Buyers who focused only on national trends often hesitated — while those who understood their local market found opportunities.

This reinforces one truth:

Real estate decisions are local, not national.

6. Buyer Psychology Played a Bigger Role Than Data

One of the most powerful forces in 2025 wasn’t economic — it was emotional.

Many Canadians believed:

• Rates would keep falling

• Prices might soften further

• Better timing was ahead

So they waited.

This “wait-and-see” mindset slowed activity, even as fundamentals slowly improved.

Key insight:

Markets don’t turn when data improves — they turn when confidence returns.

7. Debt Levels and Wage Growth Still Matter

Canada’s high household debt levels and modest wage growth continued to limit how much buyers could comfortably borrow.

Even motivated buyers often found themselves constrained — not by desire, but by qualification reality.

What this means going forward:

Sustainable growth depends on income catching up, not just rates coming down.

So… What Does This Mean for 2026?

2026 isn’t about a sudden boom — it’s about transition.

As rate trends become clearer, renewals stabilize, and new housing supply slowly comes online, confidence is likely to improve. When that happens, activity often returns faster than expected.

Not explosively — but meaningfully.

The buyers who benefit most won’t be the ones trying to time the perfect moment.

They’ll be the ones who planned early and stayed informed.

What Canadians Should Do Differently Going Into 2026

Start planning sooner.

Don’t wait for headlines to change. Small shifts compound over time.

Focus on your local market.

Opportunities are rarely national — they’re neighbourhood-specific.

Build flexibility into your strategy.

Rate holds, term options, purchase timing, and structure matter more than predictions.

Get guidance early.

Understanding your numbers before you act puts you in control — not reacting under pressure.

The Swivel Perspective

2025 reminded us that real estate is less about guessing the market and more about understanding it.

Clarity beats timing.

Preparation beats prediction.

And confidence comes from having a plan — not waiting for certainty.

If 2025 left you unsure, 2026 is your opportunity to reset with intention.

Whether you’re buying, renewing, or simply planning your next move, we’re here to help you navigate the next chapter with confidence and calm.

Let’s talk — and make sure your next decision is a strategic one.